Virus tally still climbing; questions surround numbers

For the sixth consecutive day, the number of confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus in Lincoln Parish has gone up, but that doesn’t mean all of the cases are active.

Plus, there are new questions about the accuracy of the data. Thursday’s midday update from the Louisiana Department of Health shows that in Lincoln Parish there are 101 confirmed cases of COVID-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus, with 11 deaths attributable to it.

That’s up two cases from Wednesday. Because of computer network issues, LDH was not able to update the death count until Wednesday evening, and when it did, the Lincoln Parish jumped from 10 to 11.

But the numbers don’t necessarily match up to those being kept by Lincoln Parish Director of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness Kip Franklin.

Each time a person is tested for COVID-19 and the test is positive, the patient gets counted among the confirmed cases. That means if an individual is tested more than once during the course of their illness, and the test comes back positive, the case is counted anew, even though it’s the same individual.

At least one patient has shown up multiple times, plus at least two counted in the Lincoln Parish number are not Lincoln Parish residents.

The confirmed case count also includes an unknown number of people presumed to have recovered from the illness, as well as the original positive diagnosis for the patients who have died.

Consequently, nobody knows the exact number of active cases of COVID-19 here, nor does anyone know the number of people who have, or have had the virus, but did not get tested, Franklin said.

The first two confirmed cases here were officially recorded on March 22. The first locally confirmed deaths here were announced April 13. No breakdown is available on the age range and gender of the deceased patients or whether they had compromising conditions prior to contracting COVID-19.

Meanwhile, the aggregate number of swab tests for COVID-19 done on parish residents also continues to increase daily. As of Thursday, the total was 843. As more tests are the done, the likelihood of more positive results increase, at least for a while.

The ability to do ramped up testing is part of the White House gating criteria states must meet in order to enter Phase One of President Trump’s Opening Up America Again program.

Gov. John Bel Edwards is expected to announce Monday whether Louisiana is ready for Phase One. The governor’s current stay-at-home order expires May 15.

Statewide the number of coronavirus patients and deaths continue to climb, though not as rapidly. Hospitalizations of COVID-19 patients and the number of patients on ventilators continue to decrease.

Thursday’s report shows Louisiana with 30,652 confirmed cases and 2,135 deaths. The report also shows that, as of Monday, 20,316 Louisianans are presumed to have recovered from the virus.