Opt-out decisions from 2020 season throw wrench into NFL draft options

Caleb Farley was the first top prospect to make the decision that has added a whole new layer of uncertainty to the annual crapshoot that is the NFL draft.

The talented Virginia Tech cornerback decided back in July to skip the 2020 season because of the coronavirus. Having lost his mother to cancer in 2018, Farley was unwilling to put another loved one at risk and felt it would be safer to skip the season no matter the impact on his draft status.

Farley had plenty of players follow his lead, including several others set to be high draft picks next week such as LSU receiver Ja’Marr Chase, Oregon tackle Penei Sewell, Northwestern tackle Rashawn Slater and Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons.

Now it’s up to NFL teams to figure out how much to weigh those decisions in their draft evaluations and how to project what kind of prospects they will be.

“We’re talking about top 10, top 15 players that you haven’t seen in over a year,” ESPN draft analyst Todd McShay said. “It’s challenging. It really is because you don’t know where they are physically. There’s a difference between working out and being in good shape and then football shape. I think it’s going to play a big part into this year’s draft in terms of teams just wanting to know what they see.”

McShay said he believes some teams will opt to take players who played in 2020 over those who sat out if the grades are similar but most of those top players are still expected to go off the board in the top half of the first round.

Farley has another factor complicating his situation after undergoing back surgery in March. He is expected to be ready for the start of training camp and has no regrets on his decision, even after being forced to skip his pro day workouts because of the injury.

Longtime draft analyst Gil Brandt, who spent nearly three decades with the Dallas Cowboys, likened the players sitting out 2020 to those who missed seasons in the military during the Vietnam War.

Brandt said those players rarely came back at the same level, but the situation with Farley and the others is far different since they were able to work out and spend extra time studying film and working on technique that they believe will help them in the NFL.

“That’s all I’ve been doing is breaking down offensive coordinators and learning from some of my mentors and guys in the NFL who have been playing the position for a long time,” Farley said.

While players such as Sewell and Chase are still expected to be top 10 picks, others such as Miami’s Gregory Rousseau, Washington’s Joe Tryon and Memphis’ Kenneth Gainwell might have missed out on opportunities to build on promising 2019 seasons.